Energy Efficient Aviation 2050


Scenario analysis and explorative evaluation of future Air Traffic Systems (ATS)

Contents / overview. The complexity, scope, and long-term future dimension of the topic requires a thorough consideration of rapidly changing contexts (political, economic, social, technological, environmental + values&lifestyles). Uncertain futures have to be taken into account and the value base of underlying assumptions has to be made explicit. A design-driven systemic process will be combined with a Futures Studies / Scenario-Building approach. Theoretical underpinnings can be found in Transdisciplinarity Studies and the emerging Transformative Sciences.

State of the art. Existing inquiries into aviation futures can be distinguished into predictive, explorative and normative approaches (Linz 2012). CONSAVE 2050 (2005) explores and describes four different possible developments, whereas FLIGHTPATH 2050 (2011) postulates a normative goal for the European aviation industry. We will address the obvious bias towards quantitative economic growth based on technological innovation and develop new options by:
- questioning the value base of current development trajectories (transformation studies),
- including all relevant contextual factors and mega-trends (futures studies),
- focussing on human and social needs (design thinking, transdisciplinary studies), thus
à focussing on the positive potentials of the “less attractive” scenarios such as regionalization or even de-growth strategies.


Goals and knowledge gained. We aim at orientation knowledge in two ways: (1) Providing instruments to integrate the heterogeneous findings (from noise assessment, life cycle engineering, air traffic & airport management, etc.) into holistic images of probable / possible / desirable futures. GMA (General Morphological Analysis) instruments will transfer these 2050 vision(s) into credible knowledge contributions (products, services, business models, etc.) on different levels of aggregation. (2) Transparently negotiating and formulating design factors will contribute to a common terminology and thus facilitate information flow, communication and decision-making within the research cluster.

Approaches and methods. Scenario approaches are epistemologically classified into predictive, explorative and normative: “What will happen? What can happen? And how can a specific target be reached?” We will focus on explorative and normative approaches, using state-of-the art software tools, integrating the quantitative predictions provided from the cluster. An expert survey, a hybrid of Delphi technique and GMA, will support the process.

References
- Mozuni, M. and Jonas, W. (2017) ”An Introduction to Morphological Delphi for Design. A Generic Tool for Future-oriented  Design Inquiries”. Submitted to: She Ji: The Journal of Design, Economics, and Innovation (accepted with revisions)
- Nicolescu, B. (2008) Transdisciplinarity: Theory and practice. New York NY: Hampton Press
- Schneidewind, U. and Singer-Brodowski, M. (2014) Transformative Wissenschaft: Klimawandel im deutschen Wissenschafts- und Hochschulsystem. Weimar b. Marburg: Metropolis

 

Projektsteckbrief

Laufzeit:
 bis November 2018
Förderung:
 Förderung durch
Konsortialpartner:

TU Braunschweig

Leibniz Universität Hannover

DLR

Hannover Flughafen

 
Kontakt:            
me.mozuni@hbk-bs.de